May 7th

May 8, 2012 by Leave a comment

There weren’t updates as Euro and SPX followed projections. Today there are clearer subwaves, so it is useful to post new charts.

Euro broke under the supposed neckline, after a strong selloff that should be a small wave iii. Today’s bounce is probably due to fill the gap and backtest the neckline. The critical level, as said remains 1,33 but in the current count new lows are imminent before any other significant bounce. Intermediate target is still under 1,26, probably under 1,19

SPX is developing an impulse down, bouncing in a small wave iv that could be complete or needs to go around 1380 before going under 1357 (cash index)

Silver is still struggling with the support area around 30$. The entire move since 37$ doesn’t show a clear impulsiveness, so unless it breaks hard (a -7/8% day), it could surprise to the upside from this area. I will chart it in the next few days

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Silver

April 25th

April 25, 2012 by Leave a comment

Still sticking with bearish scenarios for Euro and SPX, even with latest gyrations. No change in counts as they are still wandering around the critical levels indicated in last few posts. Especially for the dollar, today’s Fed meeting could give one direction.

Crude failed to breakdown but could still be a series of wave 1-2s

Still no committing with Silver (see previous posts) but the short term last drop looks impulsive and needs at least another one love (and 30,50 is an important level for intermediate term too)

Let’s see if the Fed kill those gyrations days giving one definite direction

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

Weekend update

April 16, 2012 by Leave a comment

Good analysis last week! Still give a look to Easter updated for bigger picture, while last days were spot on short term moves. For Euro and Silver, i just update last charts, given that they reversed right in my squared area.

Both are on track with impulsive declines towards new lows. Euro should gain more strenght breaking under 1,30, with first target around 1,2550.

Silver looks on track to go under 31, where the doubt i’m carrying about intermediate term should resolve testing 30,6 area.

ES traced out an abc correction up, and is going under recent lows too. I’m not trying to label at higher level because cash index and future discrepancy: but an ABC up after an impulse down is corrective so more downside is coming

Last, Crude Oil is retracing the impulsive rise from the bottom. It should turn up between 102,5 and 102,2, or anyway respecting the low.

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

April 11th

April 12, 2012 by Leave a comment

Not many changes since yesterday’s post.

Euro went shy of few points of the range but made another one high so the up correction could be complete. Or will it need another one high, still between 1,317-1,326

ES already started a bounce, but did not reach 1374 that would signal that the last subwave of the drop is complete. But today’s rise looks impulsive so short term after a little bit of correction there will be more upside. Lower probability that it needs another one low before rising to major resistance at 1385-1391

Silver is exactly like yesterday, so the post is still valid. But it is more likely that today’s low will hold and it will rise to 32-32,5.

Crude bounced hard: is the beginning of the rise to new highs, as i guessed yesterday? I believe it is

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

April 10th

April 11, 2012 by Leave a comment

Well, finally we had a strong down day. But the picture at this point is mixed, as euro e metals could need another bounce to complete their structure. For the medium term analysises you could read the previous Easter posts; let’s see how short term could evolve.

Euro: it rose in five clear waves from yesterday’s low, then tested the lows in a 3 waves move. a 5-3 imply another 5 up, so 1,3150 should be surpassed before the next downleg begins.The most likely area is 1,317-1,326, but it will be useful to sport a complete 5 waves move.

ES: clearly it had a strong day with many small “third wave” moments. But what is this decline? the start of a serious downtrend or another correction that will trap the bears? I don’t want to declare the Bear is back until i see a clear 5 down on hourly chart, and you could see there are only 3 waves at the moment. So i’ll leave the 1 or A labeling. Tonight it should put another low to complete the wave 3 or C and the subwave started at 1382. What after that?

If this was a 3, wave 4 should stay under 1386 and – after consolidation – should put another low with 5 down.

If this was an ABC zigzag, well.. this is another dip to buy to return to the highs.

Metals. Still no clues about what will be the next big IT move. So, remain focused on short term, it seems that Silver will rise to complete a zigzag. I still believe the “decision” point will be around 30,5, and it has to go there. Meanwhile, 32,1-32,45 should be the resistance that should provide a reverse to the downside. Gold is a little more confused, so i’ll analyze it tomorrow.

Crude Oil: pattern from the highs is surely corrective. We are right at around the powerful 61,8% retracement. From here, at any moment, i would bet is going to start a skyrocket to new highs. How it fits a rising crude, with a bearish scenario in stocks? Not very well, uh? Who will be right, we’ll see…

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

Metals’ Easter Update

April 6, 2012 by Leave a comment

Intermediate term charts in metals are still showing the doubt: are they going to waterfall or to skyrocket? Both had the same probabilities until they broke recent lows, which makes me think that there should be still some downside. Let’s see daily charts:

Structures are really similar, so i will refer to both. If the Dec low was a complete C wave, that means we are just correcting the rise of the first quarter, ready to skyrocket once the correction ends. Or maybe the Dec low was a first sub-wave, meaning we are entering the strongest phase of the decline, that should lead well below December.

If the latter is the case, implications could well be seen in charts: it means we are entering a (3) of 3 wave, that should make them litterally crater.

Shorter time frames: there should be more downiside next week, as Gold shows an 1-2-3-4 structure: if it is already in w4, it shouldn’t surpass 1647 (wave 1 low)

Silver, in a less clear subdivision of this impulse down, is tracing out an ABC correction that should lead it fast to at least 30,56, the first meaningful support (61,8% of the Dec-Mar rise)

Filed under Gold, Silver

April 3rd

April 4, 2012 by Leave a comment

Euro started the next downleg, that should be powerful and lead it under 1,26. The last support to break for confirming the move is 1,32, that is really near now. While ES is still uncertain (it could have already topped, or it is tracing out a triangle leading to one last high), Metals looks like have completed a correction up and are ready to follow down.

Euro: wave Y fell short of few points, but the reverse in 1,34 area happened anyway. Waiting for a break of 1,32 but it should happen soon

Gold and Silver should break thei lows to confirm the move, but bullish option seems far now unless the bottoms hold (that, for gold, seems unlikely)

I’m waiting to have all macro counts clear, and i think i’ll have in a couple of days or early next week, to post some intermediate term charts. When things are uncertain, is better to focus to small time frames to trade small moves. But we are near, and it will be worth focusing on where we are going.

Have a nice trading tomorrow

Filed under Comments, EuroFx, Gold, Silver

March 29th

March 30, 2012 by Leave a comment

These are 5 waves down on ES or is once again a blunder? There is only one way to confirm: a 3 wave move that ends under the top, and a substantial decline next week. This time they seem clearly impulsive, but.. we’ll see.

Euro doesn’t look impulsive. I’ve never liked to label more than 3 waves with X,Y and so on, but.. seeing a complete wave up and a corrective move down, i’ll stick with this. Probably one more high before turning down, maybe while ES completes the predicted move up.

Talkin about complex corrections, Crude Oil shows a textbook double flat. The first support box was drawn in last CL update: it needed more time, but it is there now. It should hold and start another one impulse up to surpass the highs.

I am not convinced by the corrective nature recent downmove in metals. I do not find strong elements to commit one way or another: primary choice remains that until 31,11 and 1626 hold, another up leg is starting right from these levels.

Have a nice weekend, i will update saturday or sunday.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Oil, Silver

March 27th

March 28, 2012 by Leave a comment

Counts evolved well following yesterday’s projections. Euro and ES has the same short term structure, almost finishing (or they just did?) an impulse up. Same doubt: were the dip and the new high of this night wave iv and v, or did they complete wave iii?

My doubt is clearer looking at euro chart: if it completed just wave iii, it cannot go under 1,3298 (wave i high) so breaking this level would strenghten the view that the top is in. Final confirmation that wave (3) is underway will come breaking 1,32. Wave (3) should show a strong, crash-type decline.

If wave (2) needs another one high, it will probably put with a marginal high above today’s one.

Same doubt on short term structure for ES

Silver (and gold) completed a five wave rise from the low, and it could be wave 1 of a new uptrend or wave A of a correction. After a brief correction between 50-61,8% of this rise, another 5 up should declare if silver is going much higher in a wave 3, or will end a correction in wave C before resuming its recent weakness.

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Silver

March 26th

March 27, 2012 by Leave a comment

Wave C in euro is extending, tracing the first three waves. It needs a consolidation in wave iv and a final push up (probably around 1,34) before turning down

Metals are confirming my recent (at least for the short term) bullish bias. Recent posts are well explantory, and i think last week low will hold for now, maybe for more than a while. Both metals looks like they have traced or almost completed five waves up, so it’s possible that they will correct a bit before continue up. But i won’t bet for a deep retracement rather than a small correction

ES.. well, maybe it just won’t turn. It pushed to another high and it really looks not completed, so expect more upside. Limited or not, it should be seen. The uptrend looks to me too dangerous to be joined now, but it is equally dangerous to anticipate again (my fault) a turn. Revised count of recent action:

Market is QE addicted right now and every downtick is bought with rumors of a new round or – like today – is Bernanke in person to add fuel talking about “accomodative” policies to come (even if he denied just one month ago there would have been new QE). So this is the game: every pause in the rally require a rumor, a hope, a QE talk. And the addicted market, like a obedient dog, buys. There will be an end to this game? We’ll see.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Silver

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