May 9th update

May 9, 2012 by Leave a comment

Euro finally broke down and ES made new lows, as predicted in last few posts. But now both show a complete impulsive structure down that should led to a at least short term bounce.While for the intermediate bullish case 1,33 (euro) and 1.415 (spx) remains key levels, we could identify a target range IF the bounce develops.

Euro: five wave down, it could at least backtest the neckline or slightly above until 61,8% retracement. Boxed area is 1,306-1,315; after that, a strong decline should led to undr 1,26 in few days. Be careful managing this supposed bounce as risks remain to the downside

Same structure for SPX and ES: five clear waves down. In this case, the most likely retracement area is 1378-1389. This time SPX shows the same impulsive structure as ES

The same bounce could develop same way in Crude Oil, that after the strong decline shows a triangle, almost or already completed. Triangles are always 4th (or B) waves, so even there will be another one low, it will be fast and reversed.

I missed the move in metals, but the overall count is still “problematic”. However you could find in old posts (clicking the metals tab) how was the bearish option and where there could be reasonable target if new lows are made.

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

April 25th

April 25, 2012 by Leave a comment

Still sticking with bearish scenarios for Euro and SPX, even with latest gyrations. No change in counts as they are still wandering around the critical levels indicated in last few posts. Especially for the dollar, today’s Fed meeting could give one direction.

Crude failed to breakdown but could still be a series of wave 1-2s

Still no committing with Silver (see previous posts) but the short term last drop looks impulsive and needs at least another one love (and 30,50 is an important level for intermediate term too)

Let’s see if the Fed kill those gyrations days giving one definite direction

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

Weekend update

April 23, 2012 by Leave a comment

Unfortunately, Friday didn’t bring interesting developments. So i have only to update last charts, primary scenarios remains the same

Euro, probably need one more push up on wave iv-v. Then..

SPX: on the verge of a powerful third wave?

Crude Oil with the projected retracement of last impulse down completed

Still in wait and see mode for metals. But if the projections above are right, this week should be exciting. We’ll see

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

April 19th

April 20, 2012 by Leave a comment

Big move preparing? Something evolved since last post, but not in a decisive way. Euro is still struggling, and i’m guessing (but just a guess) that wave B in unfolding as a triangle. But still keep in mind that it could break anytime now and the move will be powerful

ES completed a zig zag correction and is ready to break the lows. The strenght of the decline will say more about the intermediate count: a wave iii down should go lower for more than 100 points.

Cude oil did not be able to start an impulse, and after completing a zig zag up, traced out five waves to the downside today. So, next move will break the lows until yesterday’s high remain intact

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

April 18th

April 18, 2012 by Leave a comment

Some expected move, some not in the past couple of days. Let’s start with the euro: it tested 1,30 but failed to break, simultaneously with a clear, completed impulse to the downside. So after the 5 waves down, there is still another one correction up before the long awaited break of 1,30. Resistance is always the same area (1,32-1,324), that combines two strong EW target: 61,8% retracement and previous w4 high.

Also note that there is a nice H&S pattern forming, that breaking solidly the neckline would give as first target 1,255 area

ES started to retrace the decline from the top. Remeber both cases discussed in the last post; below i’m considering the bearish case using SPX chart. Looks like it is in wave C, targeting 1397-1400 before reversing in which would be a very strong decline (considering a typical w3 as 1,618x w1, that would mean 113 points). If the bearish view is incorrect, then it shouldn’t need much time to prove: the bullish would place us in a small wave iii up that should lead to new highs in 2-3 days.

Crude oil started its (supposed) march. The situation is opposite to ES:  it should run to the upside, and the level until which this view will be mantained isthe wave 2 low at 102,25.

Nothing new about the metals sonce the previous posts. Have a good trading tomorrow!

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

Weekend update

April 16, 2012 by Leave a comment

Good analysis last week! Still give a look to Easter updated for bigger picture, while last days were spot on short term moves. For Euro and Silver, i just update last charts, given that they reversed right in my squared area.

Both are on track with impulsive declines towards new lows. Euro should gain more strenght breaking under 1,30, with first target around 1,2550.

Silver looks on track to go under 31, where the doubt i’m carrying about intermediate term should resolve testing 30,6 area.

ES traced out an abc correction up, and is going under recent lows too. I’m not trying to label at higher level because cash index and future discrepancy: but an ABC up after an impulse down is corrective so more downside is coming

Last, Crude Oil is retracing the impulsive rise from the bottom. It should turn up between 102,5 and 102,2, or anyway respecting the low.

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

April 11th

April 12, 2012 by Leave a comment

Not many changes since yesterday’s post.

Euro went shy of few points of the range but made another one high so the up correction could be complete. Or will it need another one high, still between 1,317-1,326

ES already started a bounce, but did not reach 1374 that would signal that the last subwave of the drop is complete. But today’s rise looks impulsive so short term after a little bit of correction there will be more upside. Lower probability that it needs another one low before rising to major resistance at 1385-1391

Silver is exactly like yesterday, so the post is still valid. But it is more likely that today’s low will hold and it will rise to 32-32,5.

Crude bounced hard: is the beginning of the rise to new highs, as i guessed yesterday? I believe it is

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

April 10th

April 11, 2012 by Leave a comment

Well, finally we had a strong down day. But the picture at this point is mixed, as euro e metals could need another bounce to complete their structure. For the medium term analysises you could read the previous Easter posts; let’s see how short term could evolve.

Euro: it rose in five clear waves from yesterday’s low, then tested the lows in a 3 waves move. a 5-3 imply another 5 up, so 1,3150 should be surpassed before the next downleg begins.The most likely area is 1,317-1,326, but it will be useful to sport a complete 5 waves move.

ES: clearly it had a strong day with many small “third wave” moments. But what is this decline? the start of a serious downtrend or another correction that will trap the bears? I don’t want to declare the Bear is back until i see a clear 5 down on hourly chart, and you could see there are only 3 waves at the moment. So i’ll leave the 1 or A labeling. Tonight it should put another low to complete the wave 3 or C and the subwave started at 1382. What after that?

If this was a 3, wave 4 should stay under 1386 and – after consolidation – should put another low with 5 down.

If this was an ABC zigzag, well.. this is another dip to buy to return to the highs.

Metals. Still no clues about what will be the next big IT move. So, remain focused on short term, it seems that Silver will rise to complete a zigzag. I still believe the “decision” point will be around 30,5, and it has to go there. Meanwhile, 32,1-32,45 should be the resistance that should provide a reverse to the downside. Gold is a little more confused, so i’ll analyze it tomorrow.

Crude Oil: pattern from the highs is surely corrective. We are right at around the powerful 61,8% retracement. From here, at any moment, i would bet is going to start a skyrocket to new highs. How it fits a rising crude, with a bearish scenario in stocks? Not very well, uh? Who will be right, we’ll see…

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

March 29th

March 30, 2012 by Leave a comment

These are 5 waves down on ES or is once again a blunder? There is only one way to confirm: a 3 wave move that ends under the top, and a substantial decline next week. This time they seem clearly impulsive, but.. we’ll see.

Euro doesn’t look impulsive. I’ve never liked to label more than 3 waves with X,Y and so on, but.. seeing a complete wave up and a corrective move down, i’ll stick with this. Probably one more high before turning down, maybe while ES completes the predicted move up.

Talkin about complex corrections, Crude Oil shows a textbook double flat. The first support box was drawn in last CL update: it needed more time, but it is there now. It should hold and start another one impulse up to surpass the highs.

I am not convinced by the corrective nature recent downmove in metals. I do not find strong elements to commit one way or another: primary choice remains that until 31,11 and 1626 hold, another up leg is starting right from these levels.

Have a nice weekend, i will update saturday or sunday.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Oil, Silver

March 14th afternoon update

March 14, 2012 by Leave a comment

It’s been almost a month that, after being lost in markets, i’ve started to be deadly wrong on ES and definitely in synch with all the other assets i follow. I usually be helped in correlations in my analysises, so how is this possible? I’m not a conspiracy follower but my thoughts are that in this period the other markets are “sincere” and more predictable, while stocks are driven by central banks and manufactured rumors. I’ll mantain the wedge count on ES, waiting for it to break. I think will be ugly as not even in 2008. European stock mkts show a terrific structure that could be already (today) or almost complete, maybe i’ll post it tonight.

But now i want to focus on the other assests. Metals are on their way: for Silver it’s critical to see how it will respond to the 30,59 area, 61,8% retracement of the rise up from the lows to 37$. If that area is broken, then a iii of iii to low 20s is underway. Other way, if it holds as support and the current down move is a macro wave 2, then expect a parabolic rise above 50$. The same thing is, with obviuously different levels, on Gold. It may find support around 1625$ and reverse toward 2000$ or break and aim 1300$. So, critical juncture here. SIlver count:

Oil has a similar spot between 101,45 and 103,1. Looks like it is accelerating as expected, being now in a small wave iii for my previous counts.

On eur well.. you could read on previous days posts. The only doubt is if this is a small wedge, implying a bounce until 1,32 (that should cap almost every upside), or is it simply struggling to break 1,30 and heading toward 1,25. Chart:

I will maybe post an european stocks update tonight.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Oil, Silver

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