Metals’ Easter Update

April 6, 2012 by Leave a comment

Intermediate term charts in metals are still showing the doubt: are they going to waterfall or to skyrocket? Both had the same probabilities until they broke recent lows, which makes me think that there should be still some downside. Let’s see daily charts:

Structures are really similar, so i will refer to both. If the Dec low was a complete C wave, that means we are just correcting the rise of the first quarter, ready to skyrocket once the correction ends. Or maybe the Dec low was a first sub-wave, meaning we are entering the strongest phase of the decline, that should lead well below December.

If the latter is the case, implications could well be seen in charts: it means we are entering a (3) of 3 wave, that should make them litterally crater.

Shorter time frames: there should be more downiside next week, as Gold shows an 1-2-3-4 structure: if it is already in w4, it shouldn’t surpass 1647 (wave 1 low)

Silver, in a less clear subdivision of this impulse down, is tracing out an ABC correction that should lead it fast to at least 30,56, the first meaningful support (61,8% of the Dec-Mar rise)

Filed under Gold, Silver

April 3rd

April 4, 2012 by Leave a comment

Euro started the next downleg, that should be powerful and lead it under 1,26. The last support to break for confirming the move is 1,32, that is really near now. While ES is still uncertain (it could have already topped, or it is tracing out a triangle leading to one last high), Metals looks like have completed a correction up and are ready to follow down.

Euro: wave Y fell short of few points, but the reverse in 1,34 area happened anyway. Waiting for a break of 1,32 but it should happen soon

Gold and Silver should break thei lows to confirm the move, but bullish option seems far now unless the bottoms hold (that, for gold, seems unlikely)

I’m waiting to have all macro counts clear, and i think i’ll have in a couple of days or early next week, to post some intermediate term charts. When things are uncertain, is better to focus to small time frames to trade small moves. But we are near, and it will be worth focusing on where we are going.

Have a nice trading tomorrow

Filed under Comments, EuroFx, Gold, Silver

March 29th

March 30, 2012 by Leave a comment

These are 5 waves down on ES or is once again a blunder? There is only one way to confirm: a 3 wave move that ends under the top, and a substantial decline next week. This time they seem clearly impulsive, but.. we’ll see.

Euro doesn’t look impulsive. I’ve never liked to label more than 3 waves with X,Y and so on, but.. seeing a complete wave up and a corrective move down, i’ll stick with this. Probably one more high before turning down, maybe while ES completes the predicted move up.

Talkin about complex corrections, Crude Oil shows a textbook double flat. The first support box was drawn in last CL update: it needed more time, but it is there now. It should hold and start another one impulse up to surpass the highs.

I am not convinced by the corrective nature recent downmove in metals. I do not find strong elements to commit one way or another: primary choice remains that until 31,11 and 1626 hold, another up leg is starting right from these levels.

Have a nice weekend, i will update saturday or sunday.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Oil, Silver

March 26th

March 27, 2012 by Leave a comment

Wave C in euro is extending, tracing the first three waves. It needs a consolidation in wave iv and a final push up (probably around 1,34) before turning down

Metals are confirming my recent (at least for the short term) bullish bias. Recent posts are well explantory, and i think last week low will hold for now, maybe for more than a while. Both metals looks like they have traced or almost completed five waves up, so it’s possible that they will correct a bit before continue up. But i won’t bet for a deep retracement rather than a small correction

ES.. well, maybe it just won’t turn. It pushed to another high and it really looks not completed, so expect more upside. Limited or not, it should be seen. The uptrend looks to me too dangerous to be joined now, but it is equally dangerous to anticipate again (my fault) a turn. Revised count of recent action:

Market is QE addicted right now and every downtick is bought with rumors of a new round or – like today – is Bernanke in person to add fuel talking about “accomodative” policies to come (even if he denied just one month ago there would have been new QE). So this is the game: every pause in the rally require a rumor, a hope, a QE talk. And the addicted market, like a obedient dog, buys. There will be an end to this game? We’ll see.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Silver

Metals March 22nd

March 23, 2012 by Leave a comment

SIlver and Gold bottomed today right at the support zone indicated in yesterday’s post (30,5-31 for Silver, 1628 area for Gold – well, 1627.5 to be precise!) then bounced. The question is the same proposed last few days: the drop is just a correction or the start of a move down that will take out December lows? It is still to early to answer, but the proposed cases were essentially two:

- BULLISH case: the rise from December to March was an impulsive first wave: after a correction in wave 2, they will start a strong rise in wave 3. It was presented here

- BEARISH: March high was the top of a macro second wave correction, and this is the start of a powerful wave iii of 3 that will lead Gold to 1300 and Silver to 20$.

The structure is not entirely clear as it was in other cases: the bearish case could be supported counting a series of first-second waves like presented here and should gain speed soon.

But i want to present a chart for the bullish case today, that i have to admit looks the more harmonious count at this moment. March top was the top of an impulse up, an this is the subdivison of a second wave down

Next few days will be key: either case, there is a strong wave 3 coming. If this area holds, we’ll probably see both metals surpass last year’s highs.

Filed under Gold, Silver

March 21st

March 22, 2012 by Leave a comment

Another one interlocutory days, with negative bias in close (while euro reversed in the morning). There is not so much to add from yesterday analysis, because metals are still flirting with their lows and ES didn’t declared its intentions.

I still believe Silver has to test 30,5-31 area (remember, 61,8% of the rise from the december low) and see how it react there. The corresponding area for Gold is 1628: it looks like Gold is developing a trinagle, so a spike down and a reverse should be perfectly permissible.

ES is a little bit choppy for today so here is an update of SPX chart. Backtesting and still closing under the wedge trendline

Euro reached the target area and reversed. While there are not five clear wave down in place, a strong acceleration to the downside is still my primary scenario

Wonder when ES will finally reverse? Probably when THIS finally will (topped today?):

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Silver

March 14th afternoon update

March 14, 2012 by Leave a comment

It’s been almost a month that, after being lost in markets, i’ve started to be deadly wrong on ES and definitely in synch with all the other assets i follow. I usually be helped in correlations in my analysises, so how is this possible? I’m not a conspiracy follower but my thoughts are that in this period the other markets are “sincere” and more predictable, while stocks are driven by central banks and manufactured rumors. I’ll mantain the wedge count on ES, waiting for it to break. I think will be ugly as not even in 2008. European stock mkts show a terrific structure that could be already (today) or almost complete, maybe i’ll post it tonight.

But now i want to focus on the other assests. Metals are on their way: for Silver it’s critical to see how it will respond to the 30,59 area, 61,8% retracement of the rise up from the lows to 37$. If that area is broken, then a iii of iii to low 20s is underway. Other way, if it holds as support and the current down move is a macro wave 2, then expect a parabolic rise above 50$. The same thing is, with obviuously different levels, on Gold. It may find support around 1625$ and reverse toward 2000$ or break and aim 1300$. So, critical juncture here. SIlver count:

Oil has a similar spot between 101,45 and 103,1. Looks like it is accelerating as expected, being now in a small wave iii for my previous counts.

On eur well.. you could read on previous days posts. The only doubt is if this is a small wedge, implying a bounce until 1,32 (that should cap almost every upside), or is it simply struggling to break 1,30 and heading toward 1,25. Chart:

I will maybe post an european stocks update tonight.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Oil, Silver

March 13rd

March 14, 2012 by Leave a comment

This is getting really incredible. Despite indicators, oscillators, wave counts, correlations (eur and metals were down as bonds did in Europe), broken channels, vix at 2007 levels, gravity and whatever else.. ES managed another up close after a JPM announcement. One could argue that after the entire stress tests were disclosed (4 banks didn’t passed, and many others passed for a bit) thing should have realigned.. well, no. Buy every dip, buy forever. Maybe think of exit from longs (going short is prehistoric, and maybe forbidden) when this wedge will be broken

Eur, i was saying. Look how it followed perfectly the continue red line, which was the primary scenario yesterday. Expecting a strong, very strong down move (crash type), maybe as soon as tomorrow or Thursday. I still don’t understand how eur can crash without affecting ES but hey, don’t ask and buy the dip

Just an update of recent charts for Crude and Metals

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx, Gold, Oil, Silver

Metals Mar 10th

March 11, 2012 by Leave a comment

Intermediate term, Silver has still both options discussed here alive. Short term, this is my primary count:

The developing ABC need another one high, that should stay under 35,7 if current subdivision is correct, or could arrive little above if the decline from 37,7 to 32,6 is a complete impulse down.

Gold should find resistance between 1725 and 1740 before reversing lower

Filed under Gold, Silver

Metals March 7th

March 8, 2012 by Leave a comment

Silver decline has yet to assume a clear five wave shape. It could do with another one low from current levels. Gold looks complete and ready for a bounce, but the shortness of wave i-ii could lead to some surprise

Filed under Gold, Silver

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