May 21st update

May 22, 2012 by 7 Comments

Finally, it looks like the bounce has started. Both euro and SPX, deeply oversold, rallied today in a convincing manner. Some uncertainty remain about the near term count, but i’ll try to spot the end of this rally (that should have some leg in the next few days)

Euro

If Friday’s low is the end of wave (3), then this is wave (4) and should stay under 1,30. If this is just wave 1 of (3), then it could go little higher, between 1,3045 (61,8% of wave 1) or until 1,31 to backtest the neckline. Today it should have complete wave A of this correction, so is it possible to see a modest pullback in wave B before grinding higher.

SPX

Here i could see many possibilities.

- the recent low is wave 3: now we are in wave 4 and should stay under 1356 (w1 territory)

- this is wave i of wave 3: the bounce will go until 1368 or little more in wave ii of 3 before crashing

- this is a complete A (insted of 1) – B (insted of 2) – C down, and this bounce will lead to new highs.

I remain with the bearish view, but i see both first and second options as equally likely. I’ll need to see the subwaves of the bounce before committing to a target for the bounce. I think it will clarify in 2 or 3 sessions.

i know i’m neglecting gold and silver recently, given that they were my point of strenght in the first months of this blog. But i’m still doubtful about the near term (both failed to retouch december lows) so i don’t want to commit. However i’ll try to formulate a bearish and a bullish option in the next posts.

Filed under Comments, ES, EuroFx

Euro Update

May 16, 2012 by Leave a comment

Being bearish for months, in the last couple of days i tried to identify a countertrend bounce subdividing the current impulse down. But i failed to remember a golden rule: in a wave 3, especially at different degrees (this is supposed to be a iii of (3) of 3, never try to identify the end of the move. The initial target i gave for months is 1,255, and under 1,19. So below there is the updated chart i posted some time ago. Stick with the trend for now, if a bounce occur i’ll try to identify its end.

 

Filed under EuroFx

May 9th update

May 9, 2012 by Leave a comment

Euro finally broke down and ES made new lows, as predicted in last few posts. But now both show a complete impulsive structure down that should led to a at least short term bounce.While for the intermediate bullish case 1,33 (euro) and 1.415 (spx) remains key levels, we could identify a target range IF the bounce develops.

Euro: five wave down, it could at least backtest the neckline or slightly above until 61,8% retracement. Boxed area is 1,306-1,315; after that, a strong decline should led to undr 1,26 in few days. Be careful managing this supposed bounce as risks remain to the downside

Same structure for SPX and ES: five clear waves down. In this case, the most likely retracement area is 1378-1389. This time SPX shows the same impulsive structure as ES

The same bounce could develop same way in Crude Oil, that after the strong decline shows a triangle, almost or already completed. Triangles are always 4th (or B) waves, so even there will be another one low, it will be fast and reversed.

I missed the move in metals, but the overall count is still “problematic”. However you could find in old posts (clicking the metals tab) how was the bearish option and where there could be reasonable target if new lows are made.

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

May 7th

May 8, 2012 by Leave a comment

There weren’t updates as Euro and SPX followed projections. Today there are clearer subwaves, so it is useful to post new charts.

Euro broke under the supposed neckline, after a strong selloff that should be a small wave iii. Today’s bounce is probably due to fill the gap and backtest the neckline. The critical level, as said remains 1,33 but in the current count new lows are imminent before any other significant bounce. Intermediate target is still under 1,26, probably under 1,19

SPX is developing an impulse down, bouncing in a small wave iv that could be complete or needs to go around 1380 before going under 1357 (cash index)

Silver is still struggling with the support area around 30$. The entire move since 37$ doesn’t show a clear impulsiveness, so unless it breaks hard (a -7/8% day), it could surprise to the upside from this area. I will chart it in the next few days

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Silver

May 2nd

May 3, 2012 by Leave a comment

I’m sorry i’m not too much present these days but they were European holiday. The market is quite boring chopping without direction, and it is the worst environment to make IT projections everyday with EW. So the only news is that in respect of recent views on Euro and SPX, we have levels that should hold to mantain bearish forecasts: yesterday’s highs. If a trend change occurred, 1,3285 and 1.415 should be respected. Charts below.

For Euro, the drop looks impulsive and should finally represent a downturn. A break of the supposed neckline should add strenght to the move, leading to sub 1,26

Same kind of count in SPX

Finally will we have a significant move? We’ll see

Filed under ES, EuroFx

Euro & SPX update

April 30, 2012 by Leave a comment

Things are getting late to clarify. There is still no change in euro count, but it should turn very soon to confirm otherwise some other possibility should be considered

Exactly the same for SPX. If the recent rise is an ABC correction, it should end right here. Otherwise, tomorrow will be a strong up day as in the alternate view we should be in a small third wave of a rise towards new highs

I think tomorrow will be telling, one way or another.

Filed under ES, EuroFx

April 25th

April 25, 2012 by Leave a comment

Still sticking with bearish scenarios for Euro and SPX, even with latest gyrations. No change in counts as they are still wandering around the critical levels indicated in last few posts. Especially for the dollar, today’s Fed meeting could give one direction.

Crude failed to breakdown but could still be a series of wave 1-2s

Still no committing with Silver (see previous posts) but the short term last drop looks impulsive and needs at least another one love (and 30,50 is an important level for intermediate term too)

Let’s see if the Fed kill those gyrations days giving one definite direction

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil, Silver

Weekend update

April 23, 2012 by Leave a comment

Unfortunately, Friday didn’t bring interesting developments. So i have only to update last charts, primary scenarios remains the same

Euro, probably need one more push up on wave iv-v. Then..

SPX: on the verge of a powerful third wave?

Crude Oil with the projected retracement of last impulse down completed

Still in wait and see mode for metals. But if the projections above are right, this week should be exciting. We’ll see

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

April 19th

April 20, 2012 by Leave a comment

Big move preparing? Something evolved since last post, but not in a decisive way. Euro is still struggling, and i’m guessing (but just a guess) that wave B in unfolding as a triangle. But still keep in mind that it could break anytime now and the move will be powerful

ES completed a zig zag correction and is ready to break the lows. The strenght of the decline will say more about the intermediate count: a wave iii down should go lower for more than 100 points.

Cude oil did not be able to start an impulse, and after completing a zig zag up, traced out five waves to the downside today. So, next move will break the lows until yesterday’s high remain intact

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

April 18th

April 18, 2012 by Leave a comment

Some expected move, some not in the past couple of days. Let’s start with the euro: it tested 1,30 but failed to break, simultaneously with a clear, completed impulse to the downside. So after the 5 waves down, there is still another one correction up before the long awaited break of 1,30. Resistance is always the same area (1,32-1,324), that combines two strong EW target: 61,8% retracement and previous w4 high.

Also note that there is a nice H&S pattern forming, that breaking solidly the neckline would give as first target 1,255 area

ES started to retrace the decline from the top. Remeber both cases discussed in the last post; below i’m considering the bearish case using SPX chart. Looks like it is in wave C, targeting 1397-1400 before reversing in which would be a very strong decline (considering a typical w3 as 1,618x w1, that would mean 113 points). If the bearish view is incorrect, then it shouldn’t need much time to prove: the bullish would place us in a small wave iii up that should lead to new highs in 2-3 days.

Crude oil started its (supposed) march. The situation is opposite to ES:  it should run to the upside, and the level until which this view will be mantained isthe wave 2 low at 102,25.

Nothing new about the metals sonce the previous posts. Have a good trading tomorrow!

Filed under ES, EuroFx, Oil

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