Silver Feb 27th

February 28, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Last move up is still subdividing, and it seems it need at least another one high before taking a pause. A probable target range is between 35,9 and 36,15.

There are several medium term option for silver: it could be completing a wave ii of the decline from 44$ to 26$, and this would imply a large and fast drop toward new lows. Or it could be completing just the wave A of this wave ii. Or, and this is the bullish option, it is completing wave 1 of a new uptrend that would carry it above 50$. But all of these three options point lower in short term: the development of this downside should clear the medium term primary count.

Filed under Silver

Crude Oil Feb 27th

February 28, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Still pointing up after this abc correction (wave 4?)

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EurUsd Feb 27th

February 28, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Two open options in the ABC view discussed in last fx post. It could already completed the C wave (red count) and almost finishing a first impulsive drop if it dips again under today’s low. Or it could still being in wave C, in this case it need one last wave up before reversing. This night should be telling.

Filed under EuroFx

February 24, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Nothing to add to yesterday analysis on ES (it found support at the lower trendline of channel/wedge, so it should have another high in the cards) or Gold. But thing are getting clearer every day as you can see in the other posts. I hope i’ll have the time during weekend to post some intermediate term chart now that i’m feeling more comfortable with my analysis.

Enjoy tomorrow and the weekend

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EurUsd Feb 23rd

February 24, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Finally, i can stick with a count on Eur. It is in wave C of a zigzag correction from the low, after completing wave B right under 1,30. The question is: spiking out of the yellow dashed triangle (usually wave 4, so the “thrusts” are last move before reversing) it completed the entire wave C or wave i of C? It should have some immediate downside, so the way it develops could tell what it has in mind.

Proportionally, i would count it better as i of C, so it should find support between 1,313 and 1,32 before continuing higher. A break of 1,30 would signal the next (and deep) wave down has started.

Filed under EuroFx

Crude Oil Feb 23rd

February 24, 2012 by Leave a Comment

There is only one advice: don’t step in front of a wave 3!

Here i count it complete but it could not be so, as there are no signs of reversal

Filed under Oil

Subdividing again?

February 23, 2012 by Leave a Comment

I don’t want to say much about ES today. Unfortunately, i’m not good to analyze over extensions and subdivisions like this, that are really stressful. Usually resolves in a bad way, but this time i would have done better to wait five clear waves down before committing (even if on smaller time frames i saw many times).

The problem is that waiting so much for a turn, and being frustrated by slow and inexorable subidivisions, influences the serenity in watching other markets too.. but it seems that i’m returning in synch (you can read the other posts, that pretty good followed last days) and this is a good sign.

I would be surprised, at this point, for ES not to surpass 1370 to hit residual stops over there; but probably half world thinks this, and it is fooling everyone once again.

Charts: SPX still channeled and ES in a wedge/ending diagonal shape. Once broken, i’m sure many people won’t have the time to join the departed train

Filed under ES

Crude Oil Feb 22nd

February 23, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Nothing more to add in respect of last days analysis. Wave 3 subdivided and it could now be complete. If this is the case, expect a 23,6-38.2% (typical for wave 4s) retracement of wave 3 between 103,3.104,6 before continuing higher.

Filed under Oil

Metals Feb 22nd

February 23, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Yesterday Gold declared its intentions, and today followed through. Subdivisions point to a possible w3 end, but i wouldn’t bet against it. It is probably due for a rise toward the 1900$ highs, but it could take a breath before accelerating if the move in the chart is the wave v of a complete impulse from the 1525$ low (second chart).

a break of 1.800 (and we are very near) would add strenght to this view.

Silver should be in a similar position but is it still not clear. I would analyze better during weekend

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EurUsd Feb 22nd

February 23, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Euro failed to break today. Two possible paths: the same 1-2 indicated yesterday (in red), that implies 1,33 won’t be passed. Alternative, it is forming a triangle (yellow dashed): triangles usually are in w4 position and prelude to a “thrust” out and then immediate reverse. So if this is the case, expect a rise to 1,34 or little beyond then reverse lower

Filed under EuroFx

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